Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, lands on November 25 this year. Although it’s still a long way off, holiday sales have already started. But they have only begun to scratch the surface. There’s still plenty of season – and money-saving chances – to go. Looking ahead to Black Friday, what can shoppers expect in the face of rising prices and other concerns?
Here’s how experts predict the trade event will take shape this year.
Inflation will impact transactions
Inflation pushed up the cost of all goods by 8.2% between September 2021 and September 2022, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Holiday shoppers are counting on discounts to provide much-needed relief. But inflation has also weighed on retailers.
“Stores are hurting,” says Priya Raghubir, professor of marketing at New York University’s Stern School of Business. “Their fixed costs remain high and revenues decline. So they can’t afford to come up with big deals. »
Inflation has hit some categories harder than others. For example, food prices have risen more than clothing prices. Buyers may find that the quality of offers depends on what they are buying. Many experts say that while retailers will continue to do a lot of business, the savings achieved may not live up to the hype.
“I think we’ll see higher prices this year than in the past, and promotions can definitely try to offset that,” says Heather Dougherty, vice president of success at Lexer, a customer data platform for retailers. “But inflation certainly drives up prices for retailers, and they have to pass that cost on to the end consumer.”
In some cases, the impact will be subtle. Retailers may charge higher shipping costs or shoppers may get less bang for their buck through shrinkage, in which a product’s price remains the same but its size or quantity is reduced. For example, a lotion bottle may hold an ounce or two less than before.
Supply chain issues could resurface
Shipping backlogs and product shortages created a tough holiday shopping season last year. Although inflation may be in the headlines this year, supply issues are not completely behind us.
“The whole supply chain is a huge question mark right now,” says Raghubir. “This is largely due to the war [in Ukraine] and how it impacted the whole world: shipping, the price of oil and gas, supply lines from China.
However, retailers might be better prepared to avoid empty shelves this time around. Many have adjusted their strategies and order times to compensate for any setbacks, says Katherine Cullen, senior director of industry and consumer insights for the National Retail Federation.
Supply chain issues could also benefit bargain hunters. Over the past few months, delayed deliveries coupled with lower consumer demand have left some stores with excess inventory.
“Retailers, some of them, are stuck with inventory that consumers don’t want to buy. These are likely to be the things that get the biggest discounts, but they’re not your ideal Black Friday gift shopping. It’s so much stuff from the last season,” Raghubir says.
Sales will occur early and often
The day after Thanksgiving marked the start of the holiday shopping season. But Black Friday sales have been rising earlier and earlier over the past few years, and this year is no exception. Target kicked off its holiday season savings with the Target Deal Days event on October 6, several days earlier than in 2021. Amazon held a members-only Prime Early Access sale on October 11-12. More events like these will appear later in October. and early November.
“A lot of that is in response to when consumers want to shop,” Cullen says. “Retailers have found that consumers like to relieve some of the pressure of having to do all their holiday shopping towards the end of the season.”
Sales will continue over the next couple of months, giving buyers plenty of opportunities to find deals. Experts expect some retailers to hold on to some of their best deals until Black Friday approaches, but there’s no need to wait.
“It’s probably in consumers’ interest to at least start thinking about buying early so that when they see something at a price they’re happy with, they can take a step forward and avoid it being sold or doesn’t get as reduced later in the season,” Cullen says.
Buying early can help cash-strapped customers spread out their spending and spare their vacation budget. Additionally, some retailers, like Target, allow shoppers to request a price match if an item they purchase goes on sale at a lower price later in the season.
Loyalty will pay
As shoppers grapple with concerns about inflation and rising interest rates, retailers are focusing more on retention as a way to make money.
“Loyalty program consumers are likely to really get exclusive offers, early access to sales, special discounts, gifts with purchase, and all sorts of other types of perks,” Dougherty says.
Monitor communications from retailers you plan to shop with. Consider signing up for subscriptions or using the ones you already have for special benefits. If there are fees associated with a loyalty program, be sure to weigh the cost against the potential savings before committing.
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Lauren Schwahn writes for NerdWallet. Email: lschwahn@nerdwallet.com. Twitter: @lauren_schwahn.
The article Shopping Experts Predict What’s in Store for Black Friday 2022 originally appeared on NerdWallet.
